Posts Tagged ‘Election’

Mt Albert by-election results

(Preliminary results, Source)

Nobody believed Nats would actually win this seat, but last night's result was still a surprise for me. Shearer did not just win the seat, but with a huge 63%:17% margin. Percentage wise, Shearer beat his predecessor, former PM Helen Clark and even Labour's performance in safe seats like Mangere.

However, this is not a serious set back for National as well. First Mt Albert has always been a red seat, secondly, the turnout was less than 50%, it appears that many right wing votes chose not bother to vote, as the result is inevitable. Lee's blunder to blunder performance and media stir up also contributed to this. If this was a general election, I believe the result would be quite different, Labour would still win, but with a smaller margin.

There were only two races last night, first was the race between Melissa Lee and Green's Russel Norman. As previous polls suggested, Green may have chance to beat National, so I was really wondering whether Mt Albert can humiliate National further by place Lee on the third place. However, it didn't happen though, but the margin between the two is very small, about 5%.

Another surprise race emerged from last night's result, the race between United Future's former deputy leader, Judy Turner, and candidates from other small parties.  Although Turner herself is not in the parliament, but as a member of a parliamentary party, being beaten by Bill and Ben and Legalise Cannabis should be something she didn't expect.

Mt Albert By-election

Local issues tend to get magnified in by-elections, but I cannot see that in this election yet. All two major parties have announce its candidate for the by-election, but non of them really know the area well - Labour''s David Shearer was a International aid worker; National's Melissa Lee, there's very little known about her stand on local issues.

This is more of a party contest now.

Unlike a lot of tories dreaming of getting an extra seat but have no vote in this, I happen to actually live in the electorate. You have to admit this is a very red seat, National never took it before, the last close call I could remember was in the 1990 election, but Clark still managed to hold on the seat despite Labour's poor showing nation-wide. If this is a National-Labour contest, I could see no chance for National.

But this is more than a two party contest, so National may got a chance, but just. It will depend on:

• Performance of Russell Norman, his ability to split hard left votes.
• How successful Nats could brand Shearer as the "national-lite".
• Turn out rate.
• Development of the supercity proposal.

It's still too early to call but I understand Labour does felt a bit nervous right now, many of residents got Labour polling phone calls recently, but that's understandable, given that the party has just lost an election, and Shearer is a relatively new face, therefore there are a lot of uncertainties.

For me, I do admire Shearer's career as a international aid worker, for that, I think he deserves this seat, as his skills of managing refugee camps would come quite handy as some parts of this electorate do give you a refugee camp kind of feeling. Although Clark was a successful Prime Minister, I do feel she owes quite a lot to her electorates, some areas didn't gain a lot from the economic development in the last few years.

About MMP...

Now I understand how the left in New Zealand survived over the last century.

National was the ‘natural party of government’, and Labour's time in power was usually short. But there's something unique for the left in New Zealand, a tradition of strong grassroots movement that keeps the spirit alive.

Here's the first one I'm aware of since the election night:

The Campaign to Save MMP

We respect National's desire to hold a public referendum on the issue. A second referendum on the issue is not something to fear, but an opportunity for New Zealanders to show they believe in fairness in their electoral system. The Campaign to Save MMP will be an independent, non-partisan effort to inform voters of the benefits of MMP and show them the downside of other electoral systems.

Well, good luck.

However, I'm also aware of the weakness of MMP demonstrated in the last election, the case of NZ First and ACT:

• ACT: 3.72% of the vote, 5 MPs
• NZ First: 4.21% of the vote ...  no MPs.

That's all because Rodney had won the Epsom seat.

I acknowledge the fact that 5% threshold is needed to keep extremists and idiots out of the parliament, and I think that kind of threshold should be in place because there are really idiots out there.

But ACT's (and United Future, Progressive ... ) case just exposed an if scenario -  lets assume that 1% of eligible voters are idiots(Sure I don't mean people who voted ACT are idiots), and 50%+ of them live in one electorate?

Well I mean, if the local idiots want one of their kind to represent them in the Parliament, I have no problem with that, that's what local representation is all about.

But does that mean other 50% of the idiots who live in other parts of country should also be represented, given the fact that they only make up 1% of total voters?

Well, your call.

It can happen. The case I can think of (just for fun) is if I'm an extremely rich cult leader and I call half of my idiot followers to move to the same electorate, it won't require a lot of money from me as those idiots will pay for themselves.

I think we should make the current 5% threshold a concrete one. Village idiots can still be represented as the electorate seats still count, but winning an electorate seat should not release any party from that rule.

To compensate minor parties the threshold can be reduced to 4 or 3 per cent. Or it can be like, for every one electorate seat a party had won, remove 0.5% or 1% of the threshold requirement.

I don't quite understand why some people found MMP 'confusing'.  What part of "Everyone has two votes, one for party and one for local representation" they don't understand so they want to dump it?

The system does need a bit of change, but I failed see the need to dump it, well unless there are real alternatives that are both simpler for some ... well ... to understand and yet still fair to everyone else. I don't know what that alternatives can be, but clearly FPP is not one of them.

Last comments

Although I did not give my party vote to Labour yesterday, I still consider the party the lesser of two evils- in last years New Zealand enjoyed a continuous stability and economic growth. And most importantly, the growth was enjoyed by all New Zealanders regardless of their gender, ethnicity or social statues, it was a sustainable growth, not the kind of growth achieved at the expense of part of our society.

It's also because I can never forget and forgive the massive incompetence of the last National Government and how that was ended nearly in tragedy.

Helen Clark and the Labour Party have done a good job in last nine years. There were downsides and unpopular movements, but if you look back, most of them were from Green politics.

I personally admired Helen Clark's strong leadership, a courage to do what's best to the country, not what electorates want. History will prove this.

She was also a great ambassador of New Zealand, she won respect for herself and New Zealand when she said no to invasion in Iraq. In China, many of my friends admired New Zealand's dignity, impartiality and selflessness as Clark first tipped the milk scandal in China.

And I'm glad to have her as my local MP for the last 27 years. She fought tirelessly for the benefit of the local community, and helped me during my hard time.

There was no doubt that National is on the road to form next government, but as I marked in my twitter, no matter who wins, it will sure be a sad turning point of New Zealand politics. As New Zealand First gradually fades away, New Zealand departed from centrist route, becoming vulnerable to irresponsible acts done by either extreme right wing like ACT or extreme left represented by Greens.

I consider myself pretty centred so it was a hard choice for me.  But when I looked at the current economic crisis, I had to come to the conclusion that John Key might be a better choice - there's no doubt that bankers and capitalists like John Key are responsible for the current world economic crisis, so he should know how to manage New Zealand through it. Why? Arsonists are usually the best fire-fighters, because only they know where the fire started.

It must be warned that John Key needs to be strong enough to resist temptations from old guards inside the National Party. I don't know much about John Key, but most of us know fairly well about old faces like Bill English, a guy like him should never be left in charge of anything alone.

John Key was also given a mandate to keep National as a centrist party and not influenced by 5 ACT MPs especially Roger Douglas otherwise he risks to become a one term PM.

Finally, just a condolence to Labour party and last nine years, it has been good nine years. Brooke Fraser, arithmetics(although it is actually a Christian song):

Election day live on Bear's Blog Chinese

I wanted to do an English version, well but I'm on my own and My Chinese blog has a larger readership so ...

Bear's Blog Chinese will be offering latest results, web digests and analysis from me and other members of the internet community after 7pm.

Some of those items will be published on my Twitter, it will be in Chinese, well, but you can click on links, most of them will be in English.

Latest from my Twitter:

Last Day!

Well, I got nothing more to say. It will be a National victory without a doubt, but whether it can win more than half of the seats, is still hard to tell at this point. It will depend on weather, and the performance of Labour and Maori party in Maori seats.

For other minor parties,Greens will be the big winner, 7%+ of votes will get them a hell lot of seats, especially in an environment with strong major parties.  Other parties, except Maori, are all quite likely to become one man party after tomorrow - ACT has a better chance, so let's say two for ACT, but I still doubt whether there will be a seat for Sir Roger.

And I bet 10 bucks that we'll be waving hands to Winnie to say goodbye after tomorrow.

If that's not your style to say goodbye to a politician like him, let's do this to him together(Source, copyright status unknown, fair use apply.):

But seriously, he'll be sadly missed.  NZ First is the true centre part in New Zealand Politics, and Winston was a good politician as what I always say: "A good politician must be able to serve his/her electorates,  or at least to entertain them." Rodney's only able achieve latter, but Winnie can kind of do both(although I don't like his ideology and policies, especially on immigration).

That's about it, just don't forget to vote tomorrow. I guess Chinese must be the ethnic group with highest turnout - you don't get a chance like this to have a say back in China. I feel quite sad for people who don't bother to participate, they will only appreciate the value their votes if they fought for it hard.

For the next National government, the last thing I want to see the is the abolishment of MMP system - I explained this in my Chinese blog, but I just don't have time to write that much here, so just three words: checks and balances.

However the system will be challeged no matter who forms the government after tomorrow - National will call for a referendum, and there will be more questions on MMP if Labour gets to form the government with less votes.