Mt Albert By-election
Local issues tend to get magnified in by-elections, but I cannot see that in this election yet. All two major parties have announce its candidate for the by-election, but non of them really know the area well - Labour''s David Shearer was a International aid worker; National's Melissa Lee, there's very little known about her stand on local issues.
This is more of a party contest now.
Unlike a lot of tories dreaming of getting an extra seat but have no vote in this, I happen to actually live in the electorate. You have to admit this is a very red seat, National never took it before, the last close call I could remember was in the 1990 election, but Clark still managed to hold on the seat despite Labour's poor showing nation-wide. If this is a National-Labour contest, I could see no chance for National.
But this is more than a two party contest, so National may got a chance, but just. It will depend on:
- Performance of Russell Norman, his ability to split hard left votes.
- How successful Nats could brand Shearer as the "national-lite".
- Turn out rate.
- Development of the supercity proposal.
It's still too early to call but I understand Labour does felt a bit nervous right now, many of residents got Labour polling phone calls recently, but that's understandable, given that the party has just lost an election, and Shearer is a relatively new face, therefore there are a lot of uncertainties.
For me, I do admire Shearer's career as a international aid worker, for that, I think he deserves this seat, as his skills of managing refugee camps would come quite handy as some parts of this electorate do give you a refugee camp kind of feeling. Although Clark was a successful Prime Minister, I do feel she owes quite a lot to her electorates, some areas didn't gain a lot from the economic development in the last few years.
